Trend for 10th of September 2011

Hi, fellow market trend analysts and independent traders. Yesterday I talked a lot about eur/gbp pair. Today the post will be very short. I just wanted to say a few ideas of mine how to prepare for Monday in terms of the security I have just mentioned. I wrote yesterday, that we can have both continuation of the move downwards for the critical support was mildly broken, or we could have a reversal and the pair will come back to its’ former range. So, what do we do having this information.

I would personally see where the market goes during Asian session. If it retraces upwards to some most immediate resistance and forms a reversal pattern (such as 123 or head and shoulders) on smaller time frames (5-15 minute charts), it would be a good possibility to sell the pair and go lower with the market (if it does go there). If the pair continues falling during Asian session and then forms a reversal pattern at other level of support it might be a sign to go up. Wait for reversals on the bottom too. And of course, the pair can simply turn upwards during Asian session and the entire move from Friday will be forgotten. 

Use your sound mind and do not overtrade. Learn to analyze before you jump on any trade. It might be a good idea not to trade at all and spend the day for monitoring price action in this and other securities. Good luck in whatever you do. See you tomorrow. 

See also:

Range trading

Resistance

123 pattern

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 8th of September 2011

Hi, market trend traders. I hope you see how Euro nose dived today. Let me talk about it a little. I also believe that you know what caused this volatility in the markets. Yes, it was fundamental news, as always. This time it was interest rate decision from both European Central bank and Bank of England. Firstly, British guys delivered their decision and after forty five minutes European central bankers did the same. The rest is history as they say.

Now, what interests me is the way one could have traded the event. As you investigate the event more carefully you will see that currencies were moving before the news release. They slowed somewhat before the first and second announcement though. Just in case, you know. This created for opportunities traders to do some news trading and news trading they did. When the news was released lots of limit orders were opened and this caused a huge day trend in the pairs. I particularly liked a move in eur/gbp. If you remember I talked a lot about my expectation for the pair and that it would fall and it did fall. Before the collapse it managed to come back to breakout level of 0.8840. 

Today’s event caused it to continue its’ downward trend. So, there was some time before the release to place a sell order below short term support of 0.8780 and wait till the news opened it. Exit level as you may understand was at an even number of 0.8700. Quite a good ride for such a slow mover as eur/gbp! The next stop is at 0.8650 level. Not much left! And nobody knows what happens after that. I told you that I expect a large bearish move in eur/gbp in the coming future. Maybe it is not far away! See you tomorrow!

See also:

Resistance

Follow the leader

Moving average

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 1st of September 2011

Hi, fellow market trend analysts and traders. Let me do a short currency market analysis today. My predictions regarding eur/cad and eur/aud finally came true. Well, eur/aud has been falling for some time and eur/cad joined the fall only today. This only confirms my predictions about the continuation of the strength of Australian and Canadian dollars. I hope you still remember my talks about the power of commodity currencies as well as commodities: gold, silver and oil. 

I have not changed my opinion. All the above mentioned ones are going to strengthen. The coming times may not be very easy for currency markets, but I still believe that some currencies will do very well against others and in those currencies one should take his bigger positions. In my opinion Euro and Pound will be the biggest losers in the days to come, Yen possibly being the third candidate for weakness. 

Anyway, 1.4100 was a place to go short in eur/cad. The pair retraced a little after breaking the level, but continued the downtrend path today. EUR/AUD  did the same and one could have taken a short of a breakout of new lows. If you want some winners in the game I guess they would be eur/aud and gbp/aud (Australian dollar being the king of the week). 

I hope you remember that when you see a tendency in progress you need only to trade in the direction of the move and you do it best when you wait for a counter trend move and when it is finished you jump back into a move (after some reversal pattern is formed). And never forget to pick the leader in the move (the security that breaks its’ daily or weekly or monthly range first). 

See also:

Follow the leader

123 pattern

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 26th of August 2011

Hello, trend followers, day traders and independent analysts. As you can see eur/cad did not turn down today as I expected but moved higher. I do not know which piece of information caused that, but I still hold to my position that Canadian dollar will strengthen against most other currency pairs. Resistance for eur/cad is still at 1.4340-70. I am waiting for reversal patterns there.

As Mondays are often reversal days, we can see reversal coming on Monday. Today was a pretty volatile day, but as you can see currencies are not moving anywhere. This is often the case in summer months, but be sure that large moves will come back when the fall comes. That’s the best time for market trends. I heard one very experienced technical trader say that most money in the markets is made between November and May. 

So, do not open up too much for risky trading now. Better watch what happens, mark support and resistance levels and wait for nice breakouts from these ugly summer ranges. If you are in USA I wish you good luck to survive hurricane Irene and have a nice weekend. 

See also:

Support

Resistance

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Market trend analysis for 3rd of August 2011

Situation in US is slightly better

 

Hello everyone. Let us do a short market trend analysis for today. It seems now that US was able to avoid a fast bankruptcy and has another chance to make necessary amendments to avoid it completely. However, if a country has been going in the wrong direction for about one hundred years, it is difficult to believe that it will change the direction now. All things are possible, but one has to make right choices. You cannot solve debt with more debt. You need to start cutting it, limit spending and etc. Market trends today show that investors will probably be getting out of US dollar and putting it elsewhere. 

Bank of Switzerland scares investors off

 

Bank of Switzerland tried to scare all investors out of Swiss Franc by cutting interest rates close to zero level. This will make it very attractive to borrow Swiss Francs and put them elsewhere, where interest rates are much higher. Swiss Franc has been doing very well for a long time and this trend can continue further, but one never knows if big dogs will be happy to buy Swissie at such high levels. Be on guard and closely watch what happens. 

Possibilities in gbp/usd pair today

 

GBP/USD formed a nice reversal pattern yesterday and today after fulfilling head and shoulders pattern on Monday. You can see an inverted head and shoulders pattern on 1 hour chart and one could have traded it by simply placing a long order above 1.6330 level (resistance) and exiting at an even number of 1.6400. This would have been a typical technical reversal trade. 

See also:

Head and shoulders

Breakout trading

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.