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Tuesday, December 18, 2012

EUR/USD short term outlook

EUR/USD short term outlook will be the topic of the post. If you look at the chart of the pair you will see that it is trying to break an important resistance level of 1.3200. If you are going to look at daily charts you will see another thing too. You will see that the pair has been in a range for about three months (from the 15th of September when an uptrend in eur/usd ended). Another thing that you will notice is a technical pattern on this daily chart. You can clearly see inverted head and shoulders. I am not too much thrilled about the pattern, because it is usually formed at the end of a downtrend move and this one formed at the end of a uptrend move. Yet, the fact that the pair has stayed for three month in a range is very important. It might be ripe for a breakout and it is very probable that the break will be upwards. 

From the fundamental point of view US dollar is kind of a ‘safe haven’ in relationship to Euro. Why? The whole region is facing a possible bankruptcy scenario due to huge national debts. We know that US can also face the same things quite soon. However, it still finds investors to finance its’ deficits and doomsday scenario for US is postponed. 

On the other hand, this fiscal cliff question is pretty acute at the moment and a lot of investors tend to put aside problems in Europe (short term) and concentrate on this ‘fiscal cliff’ stuff. This could potentially drive eur/usd pair upwards.

We are in the second half of the last month of the year and it would be not very sound to reverse short dollar positions (long Euro positions) at the moment. In my opinion, most speculators and investors would simply hold their long eur/usd bets till the end of the year and reverse to shorting the pair at the beginning of 2013. Everybody will come back to the problems in Europe and continue selling Euro. Why? It is quite clear: government officials will not be able to solve these huge financial problems that Europe is facing. If you have an open mind you should clearly see that problems in Europe are getting worse and worse and more and more EU countries need stimulus than two years ago. Lending at an interest to solve debt problem is simply digging a deeper pit. The only way to get out of it is to stop digging. Yes, if you want to get out of your pit, stop digging. Will they? I don’t think so. 

Ok, how high can eur/usd climb? Holiday season can be a pretty volatile one! My number would be around 1.3500 level. But it is only my opinion. That is the level where the pair climbed at the end of February of 2012 and failed to break it. So, this is the peak of eur/usd in 2012. What is going to happen there is again a question of speculation. We have to watch what central bankers say in order to get further clues in terms of direction for this and any other currency pair. 

I have just placed a buy stop order at the break of 1.3188 level with 44 pips stop loss order and take profit at 1.3480. If the stop is not hit and the pair moves upward I am going to move my stop. I usually place them below daily lows in an uptrend (4-30 pips below daily lows) and above daily high in a downtrend (4-30 pips above daily high). It is not a strict rule as I usually trade a few positions or create a line of trades, so my stop levels might differ for each specific order that is open. At the moment, I have only one long eur/usd trade.
Ok, so much for today. I hope I will have enough stamina to analyze other major pairs and give you my expectations regarding them before the year ends. I will try to give my thoughts regarding Japanese Yen in the next blog post. 

Ok. I hope you benefited from the post. If you liked the post I would also be happy if you gave a plus on Google+, tweeted, liked it on Facebook and other social platforms. Have a nice day. 


Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.