Trend is a blog about global daily, weekly, monthly and yearly market trends in such financial markets as Forex, stocks and commodities as well as various day, swing and Forex trading strategies and ways to invest your money. In the blog I am going to share what happens in these markets on a daily basis. I hope you will enjoy my trend analysis. Welcome to my blog.
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Showing posts with label breakout trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label breakout trading. Show all posts
It
is obvious that gold has been battered in the last couple of months. However,
most recent price action suggests that gold may rebound in the nearest future. In
fact, the recovery has already started. I want you to look at the chart below
to see for yourself. From 20th of July to 10th of August,
2015 gold has been in bottoming process. The last low on the 20th of
July was quickly rejected as price crashed dramatically and then rose suddenly. TRADE GOLD, OIL AND CURRENCIES ON eToro Disclaimer: All trading involves risk. Only risk
capital you’re prepared to lose.
Past performance is not an
indication of future results. This
content is for educational purposes
only and is not investment advice.
In
the next couple of weeks a process that traders call “accumulation process”
occurred. You can see how price tried to test previous lows on at least 5
separate occasions and failed. Each time buying pressure came and price rose. On
the other hand, price was also rejected at resistance. You can see how the
range was “squeezed” during these couple of weeks. Narrowing range is a strong
indicator that a break will occur sooner rather than later. It often presents the
best opportunities for trading a breakout.
Most
breaks fail and I would strongly advise against trading them. However, when you
see a narrowing range it is one of those rare situations when breaks turn out
to be true rather than false. This type of situation happened on the 10th
of August when price eventually broke the narrowing range and now is rising up
in waves.
Just
by measuring the base of the narrowing range pattern I assume that the minimum
target for the move is around 1143 level (classical technical analysis count).
Of course, price may go well beyond that and it is really difficult to say
where exactly the rise will be over. However, a technical trader would at least
try for the minimum target. Buying on dips seems to be the best strategy now if
initial “buy on a break” strategy was not implemented.
Disclaimer
Trading
financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all
investors. All information on the blog http://trend0.blogspot.com/ is of educational
nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade
in any financial markets.
Breakout trading strategy is probably one of the
best known in financial community of technical traders. When used properly it
can increase your chances of making significant amounts of money on a monthly
basis. This trading system is in my trading arsenal on a regular basis and I
recently made some nice cash by trading a breakout in Gold. Various breaks
happen quite often even daily in various securities. We, however, want to find
the best opportunities that can give us the biggest rate of return with the
smallest amount of risk. Let us look today at the way one can trade breakouts.
I also encourage you to watch a video on calm trend trading strategy. All trends start with a breakout and the video just expands the topic of the article:
What
kind of breakouts to trade?
Breakouts happen daily on various time frames:
weekly charts, daily charts, hourly charts and most often on various minute
charts. The smaller time frame the more false breakouts you have. Therefore, I
tend to avoid minute type of breakouts and concentrate on breakouts on daily
charts. Of course, you can clearly see those on 4 hour or 8 hour charts too. I
like to go through various time frames at the end of the day to see whether
some securities are ripe for a breakout or I need to concentrate on other ways
to trade the markets.
Necessary
condition for a breakout
Breakouts occur when price move out of ‘congestion
areas’. These are very tight ranges with prices moving within very limited
range for a couple of days or a week. These congestion areas are often formed
when security loses momentum after some prolonged swing or a short term trend
and the move stalls. In these kinds of ranges we look at the low and the high
of prices and mark these as possible breakout areas. When broken after some
news or simply technically one can expect a strong move and should be ready to
place buy or sell orders depending on whether the breakout occurs upwards or
downwards.
These kind of breakouts are sometimes corrections of
a prevailing swing or trend and the price often moves against the trend that
had previously been pushing prices. I dare to trade these breakouts against the
prevailing trend. Although one should concentrate on a prevailing trend and
trade in the direction of it, there are choppy trends that can provide you with
both opportunities to trade with the trend and against it.
Breakouts
in GOLD
The most recent examples are from my two trades in
GOLD. The first breakout occurred in the direction of a prevailing trend
(downtrend). In the beginning of February (1st through 11) Gold got
into a congestion area of 1684-1661per ounce. By looking at shorter time frames
I understood during the weekend that the break low will occur probably on
Monday and I entered a short order below 1663 level (a little above than the
low of the congested area) as I did expect the collapse will get momentum
falling even before the low of 1661 was reached. Any time the price rose trying
to go through the upper level of the congestion it was met by strong bearish
pressure, which can be clearly seen from 4 or 1 hour candles of that period. Bulls
got weaker and weaker and for any experienced technical analyst it must have
become clear that the path of the least resistance in GOLD at that period was
DOWN. Unfortunately, I expected the commodity to stay in its’ ‘then’ range and
bounce from 1630 level. This did not happen as the price of the metal collapsed
through the floor and went as low as 1555 level. So, I took my profits at
1.6550 level (13 bucks per ounce profit). Well, what a move (extra 100 buck
down) missed! However, I still made nice cash. I saw the congestion, bet on
its’ break and was rewarded for successful speculation. So, can you!
If you want to make extra money and are ready to trade Forex, futures,
indexes and stocks I recommend Etoro.
The second congestion occurred on March 1-11 as GOLD
was 1587-1564 range. Looking at the congestion on 4 and 1 hour chart and
inspecting the price action it became quite clear that the commodity found
strong fresh buyers and GOLD would run up soon. Now, the chart below is not
really what I have on my trading platform. Below you can see the price going
through the resistance level and falling back on the 7th of March.
It did not really happen until the 12th of March (check other charts
I cannot upload the one on my platform as it does not have copy function). So,
the price stayed within the cage of the above mentioned boundaries till the
break up on Monday of March 12.
Study 4 and 1 hour candles and see how falling to
the lower part of congestion area bullish candles emerged indicating that strong
buying picked up. Trust this kind of price action as it often shows that bigger
move is coming. In the second situation the break upwards was short lived, but
it was still a nice move and I significantly increased my account by trading
the breakout. I exited a few bucks before the critical 1600 level as I saw
price stalling.
Exits
The standard take profit area can be measured by
calculating the height of a congestion area and adding the amount to the
breakout area. However, from time to time the target is not reached and you can
trail your stop by moving it below/above (depending on which direction the
market goes) 1 or 4 hour candles until you knocked out of your trade.
Alternatively you can open a few trades and close the first one as soon as it
shows some profit and leaving the second one to go with the market till your
stop is knocked out (it maybe below/above 1, 4 hour or 1 day candles). If the
move is very strong you can stay longer in the market. I missed it with my
first trade. Anyways, do not allow your profits to become losses in any of your
trades.
So much for breakout trading strategy! Hope to write
soon on the subject as we have a pretty interesting week ahead of us with FOMC
rate decision and a few other very interesting risk events.
Ok. I hope you benefited from the post. If you liked
the post I would also be happy if you gave a plus on Google+, tweeted, liked it
on Facebook and other social platforms. Have a nice day.
Vytas.
Disclaimer
Trading
financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all
investors. All information on the blog http://trend0.blogspot.com/ is of educational
nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade
in any financial markets.
If you followed my recent posts you remember that I talked about possibility of gbp/usd and gbp/jpy pairs reversal near their important support levels. That is exactly what has been happening these couple of days. Support held and the pairs are going up. I am not sure whether it will continue for a long time, but I expect a pretty strong resistance at 123.00 level for gbp/jpy and 1.5700 level for gbp/usd.
On the other hand I look at aud/jpy daily chart and see that the security has been ranging between 80.50 and 77.00 levels for some time and forming upward pressure makes me think that there will be a breakout upwards and the pair will resume its’ upward trend. It is at resistance now and in case of breakout the next resistance level would be 82.00-83.00 area.
Since all important data from Australia came yesterday I do not see anything from fundamental point to stop the rise of the pair. So, buying point of the pair can be anything above its’ present level. Of course, one has to remember that the pair has already travelled a nice distance from its’ bottom of 72.04 made on the 4th of October 2011. Do not make your positions big and when (and if) the pair breaks up move your stops upwards when the security goes up.
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.
