Trend: trend for next week

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Trend for 19th of June 2011

Head and shoulders in usd/cad on 1 hour chart

Unfortunately I did not have enough time to write a post on some technical analysis aspect today. I promise to do it tomorrow. However, I will still drop you a few ideas about trading today. I want you to look at usd/cad pair. I hope you can see what I see. If you are looking at 1 hour chart you should see a clear head and shoulders pattern. This does not mean that it is going to be fulfilled. It simply means that the pair looks very bearish now and might experience a short term breakout and a downtrend in the beginning of the week.

No serious data from Canada

I do not see any significant data coming from Canada this week. There is going to be some data of medium importance on Tuesday (Leading Indicators and Retail sales) at 12:30 GMT, but I am not sure if that can cause big moves. Of course, we have seen a lot of cases when seemingly unimportant data caused a lot of volatility in the markets, but let us not speculate for the time being but wait and see what happens next twenty four hours. Breakouts that are not led by some macroeconomic news releases are not very reliable and should be traded with care.

German data could cause some volatility on Monday

On Monday we have only data from Europe (German Producer Prices) that might interest market participants. You should know by now how to trade it. A post about breakout trading should give you some insights.

Read my previous post:

Breakout

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Trend for 17th of April 2011

A new trading week is about to start. I hope we are going to see a daily trend in many pairs this week. As I mentioned yesterday, I expect silver to go up long term and dips I see as opportunities to buy. It is difficult to say anything specific about eur/usd, the most traded pair in forex. It looks trapped between 1.4518 (resistance) and 1.4364 (support). Trend is still up, but there can be short term reversal along the way up. In general, you can buy a break of the above mentioned high or wait till it is broken and enter the market during European sessions after counter trend moves during Asian sessions.

I am currently looking at aud/jpy pair and see it in a tiny range (caged between 88.54 resistance and 86.78 support). This pair interests me most at the moment as it has been in an uptrend for a considerable period of time. It looks as if market is waiting for some sort of fundamental push for the pair either to continue moving up, or reverse at the sign of possible deterioration of Australian economy. We have very important news coming from Australia on Tuesday night (Australia Bank’s Reserve Minutes). I think this will give the pair and other Australian dollar pairs a direction. As you may understand one of possibilities are to buy a break of resistance and sell the break of support when the news is released.

Sunday night and all Monday seem to be boring from a fundamental point of view. Exception is only data from New Zealand (Consumer Price Index). This could cause some serious moves not only in kiwi pairs, but also those of Australian dollar. The pairs are very connected and if something happens to New Zealand dollar, there is usually a domino effect in Australian dollar. So, be sure to check the data from Zealand. So much for today. See you tomorrow.