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Sunday, April 1, 2012

Eur/jpy and gbp/jpy up trend my reverse soon

Hi, I haven’t written for some time. I want to post more often this month and I will try to be more disciplined from now on. Today I want to pay your attention to eur/jpy chart. Looking from a technical point of view it looks like the pair has run its’ course and will reverse its’ trend soon. 

Let us look at a daily chart first. You can clearly see that the pair has recently visited a very important level of resistance 111.42 that had been previously visited on the 30th of October last year. The pair collapsed from that level. Another technical reason for a reversal is that RSI on daily chart reached overbought level and there is also a divergence on the indicator now. 

Another reason is that the pair has been running up violently since the 15th of January when it found its’ bottom. For me, that looks like a major counter trend move that is about to finish. These moves that go against the prevailing trend are usually very sharp, but short lived. And it is very good to watch for those turn around points just in order for you to be able to jump back into the market when it starts going where it has to. 

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If you look at gbp/jpy pair you will notice the same signs of an upcoming turnaround. Put on 4hour and daily charts and you will see it for yourself. Of course, this is just my speculation, but I try to base it on some solid tendency analysis and I am right many more times than I am wrong. 

Important Forex news for this week

I have just cheked Forex news calendar and the most important releases are:

Tuesday:         AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision at 04:30 GMT
            USD Fed Releases Minutes from March 13 FOMC Meeting at 18:00 GMT
Wednesday:    EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision at 11:45 GMT
Thursday:        GBP Bank of England Rate Decision at 11:00 GMT
                        CAD Net Change in Employment at 12:30 GMT
Friday:             USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT

I am pretty sure that the events will have very serious impact for various pairs. Australian dollar pairs will be affected by the rate announcement. I think Australian dollar downtrend will end and the aussie will continue climbing. 

GBP rate decision can put an end to pound rise in gbp/jpy, gbp/usd and of course, gbp/aud,
Non-farm Payrolls will put dots on i currencies should resume or reverse their tendencies after the event.

So much for today. Have a nice and profitable week.
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Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.