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Sunday, April 17, 2011

Trend for 17th of April 2011

A new trading week is about to start. I hope we are going to see a daily trend in many pairs this week. As I mentioned yesterday, I expect silver to go up long term and dips I see as opportunities to buy. It is difficult to say anything specific about eur/usd, the most traded pair in forex. It looks trapped between 1.4518 (resistance) and 1.4364 (support). Trend is still up, but there can be short term reversal along the way up. In general, you can buy a break of the above mentioned high or wait till it is broken and enter the market during European sessions after counter trend moves during Asian sessions. 

I am currently looking at aud/jpy pair and see it in a tiny range (caged between 88.54 resistance and 86.78 support). This pair interests me most at the moment as it has been in an uptrend for a considerable period of time. It looks as if market is waiting for some sort of fundamental push for the pair either to continue moving up, or reverse at the sign of possible deterioration of Australian economy. We have very important news coming from Australia on Tuesday night (Australia Bank’s Reserve Minutes). I think this will give the pair and other Australian dollar pairs a direction. As you may understand one of possibilities are to buy a break of resistance and sell the break of support when the news is released. 

Sunday night and all Monday seem to be boring from a fundamental point of view. Exception is only data from New Zealand (Consumer Price Index). This could cause some serious moves not only in kiwi pairs, but also those of Australian dollar. The pairs are very connected and if something happens to New Zealand dollar, there is usually a domino effect in Australian dollar. So, be sure to check the data from Zealand. So much for today. See you tomorrow. 

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