A reversal of trend in eur/aud and gbp/aud looks probable

You see how gbp/usd and gbp/jpy were going up recently as I had predicted. The same is happening to aud/jpy pair (look my previous post). The breakout in the pair was real and we will probably see even higher prices very soon. 

Today I looked at eur/aud and gbp/aud pairs and I saw a reversal of a downward trend coming. If you analyze gbp/aud more carefully you will see that it is at a very important resistance on daily chart. It has also formed a reversal pattern (123 structure) on 4 hour chart. The same picture can be seen on eur/aud. The pair has already made a higher high and higher low, which is a clear technical indication of upcoming higher prices. It has to take the barrier of 1.2460 lying ahead though. 

gbp/aud looks even stronger. It seems to have broken the breakout point of 1.4915. The price has retraced a little, but my sixth sense tells me that we will probably see a move up. As always, try to apply your own sound judgment to make your own decisions and do not trust everything I say.

Hope this short trend analysis was useful.

See also:

Triangle pattern

Swing trading strategies

Forex news

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Possible breakout in aud/jpy may cause it to continue upward trend

If you followed my recent posts you remember that I talked about possibility of gbp/usd and gbp/jpy pairs reversal near their important support levels. That is exactly what has been happening these couple of days. Support held and the pairs are going up. I am not sure whether it will continue for a long time, but I expect a pretty strong resistance at 123.00 level for gbp/jpy and 1.5700 level for gbp/usd. 

On the other hand I look at aud/jpy daily chart and see that the security has been ranging between 80.50 and 77.00 levels for some time and forming upward pressure makes me think that there will be a breakout upwards and the pair will resume its’ upward trend. It is at resistance now and in case of breakout the next resistance level would be 82.00-83.00 area. 

Since all important data from Australia came yesterday I do not see anything from fundamental point to stop the rise of the pair. So, buying point of the pair can be anything above its’ present level. Of course, one has to remember that the pair has already travelled a nice distance from its’ bottom of 72.04 made on the 4^th of October 2011. Do not make your positions big and when (and if) the pair breaks up move your stops upwards when the security goes up.

Hope the trend analysis was useful. 

See also: 

Breakout trading

Range trading

Day trading

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

A reversal in gbp/jpy trend is in the cards

Today I wanted to talk a little about my expectations for an upcoming change in gbp/jpy pair trend.  I do believe that pound will continue falling against major currencies, especially commodities this year, but looking at pound/yen pair I see that the way down for the security maybe over in the short term. Why do I think so?

I cannot say that I have many reasons to justify my opinion, but I have one, which might be very important. I am looking at daily chart of the pair and I see that it is approaching a very important support, which was hit on the twenty second of September, 2011 and revisited after a week on the sixth of October. Then the pair was moving upwards till the end of October and then started collapsing. It is quite close to the support now. 

Why would support hold? It might because this was the lowest point of 2011 and 2010. When a security comes to such an important level we would more naturally expect it to reverse rather than to breakout. So, I expect a reversal. RSI indicator is also close to oversold level on daily charts now.

Hope my trend analysis was useful. See you soon. 

See also: 

Swing trading

Bollinger bands

Divergence

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 12th of January 2012

I haven’t written a post on the blog “Trend” for over a month. I want to renew writing my posts. I won’t do it every day, but hope to renew the blog a few times each week. 

Today I will write a short post on my expectations about gbp/usd pair. If you look at daily chart, you will see that the security is at a very important support level of 1.5270-1.5300. The last time the pair visited the level was on the 6^th of October 2011. It isn’t a very long period of time, but I still expect the area to hold and pound to strengthen against the greenback. This prediction of mine is based on general technical market tendencies. We more often see a reversal at important support and resistance levels rather than breakouts.

Although RSI indicator is not too much oversold yet, it does not mean the 30 level on indicator has to be reached by all means. No, my intuition says we have to follow price action in this situation on not start selling a breakout. Let the pair play a little in a range and when the breakout time comes we will have sat in a tight range for quite a long period of time. At least I hope so. And then, down we will go.

Hope this short market trend analysis was useful.

See also:

Resistance

Support

Day trading

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.