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Saturday, September 24, 2011

123 pattern in eur/aud


Hi trend traders and independent market analysts. Today I wanted to remind you about importance of 123 pattern in your trading. I hope you noticed that very often at the end of the move (in a range or a trend) we have some reversal patterns. In most cases they would be: head and shoulders or 123 structure. I wait for those patterns near important support and resistance levels or at the end of a swing. If the move is strong and continues for a long time you will want to search for a reversal on daily or even weekly charts. If it is a short term (one week or a few day move) you would be willing to see the pattern on 4 or 1 hour charts. 

I want you to look at eur/aud daily chart and see two 123 patterns there. Both of them formed at the end of strong moves and presented unique opportunities for those who like trading reversals to enter reversal trades and jump on to a new developing move. As eur/aud tends to develop big moves you would definitely have to watch the pair for possible reversal patterns at important support and resistance levels.

See also:

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Selling breakouts


Hi fans of market trend analysis. Today I just wanted to talk a little about selling breakouts of support levels. I will take gbp/usd as an example. You can see that the pair has been falling for almost a month and is close to very important support now. You can also see that the pair reversed today and this may signal the bottom in the pair. But the pair has been falling and you can see in the chart how you could have successfully sold support breakouts on a number of occasions. 

You could have taken the first short position at 1.6355 level, right after the pair formed a peak at resistance of around 1.6600 level. As the down trend progressed one could have gone short at 1.6211 (not a perfect short example), then at 1.5900 level and finally at 1.5700 level. As always, it is best to wait when the pair starts ranging after a move and forms some kind of a bottom. Then one could wait for the bottom to be broken and sell a breakout when it occurs. I usually say that Asian sessions are for ranging and European and American ones for breakouts and trending. 

Do your own analysis about it and you will see. Hope you enjoyed this short post.

See also:


Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Analysis of Japanese Yen pairs


Hi, trend and day traders. I have been looking at aud/jpy pair today. As you may see from the charts it (as well as other Yen pairs) has been falling lately. Yen has been growing strong due to weakening oil prices, which may fall once again this week. This maybe good news for Yen and US dollar and bad news for commodities and commodity currencies such as Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar. It should be good for an average consumer like you and me who are influenced by inflation that has been rising due to printing of money and high prices in commodities. 

As you may see oil is at some short term resistance now and will probably continue falling. This could influence aud/jpy and it will fall with the commodity too. However, I see some support coming at around 77.00 level (in aud/jpy) and 75 (in oil). I would wait for a reversal pattern at around 77.00 level (head and shoulders or 123 structure) on 5 or 15 minute chart around the area. If you study eur/jpy or gbp/jpy or other Yen pairs you will see that most currencies are at multi year lows against Japanese Yen. This tells me that the trend may change soon and Yen will collapse. 

See also:


Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Trend for 20th of September 2011


Hi, trend trading lovers. My computer has been repaired today, so I will continue my posting as usual. I did not have much time to look through the charts, so I won’t write a long post today too. I have just looked at commodity pairs. I know that you can remind me my positive position towards those and say:”Look, do you see where they are going?” Yes, I see. But this is short term. Those who want to make serious money in the market have to concentrate on long term picture and do not overtrade using short term moves. Hope you see what I mean.

So, I looked at my charts and I see that eur/cad is at support now. I am short term bullish for the pair. Long term, I am bearish. Euro will collapse, because they have too many problems and too few ideas how to solve those. I believe it will be number 1 loser in currency market in the days to come. 

Australian dollar has been falling. However, if you remember my post where I talked on eur/aud, that it can be a leader in a bullish move of Australian dollar, I hope you see that I was right. I has reversed recently, but I am sure that it won’t continue for a long time. Just remember, that currencies that have been weak for a long time will rally at some point and become biggest winners from biggest losers. I do not believe it be for a long time though. So, I am looking forward to more weakness in eur/aud.

Good luck.

See also:

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Trend for 18th of September 2011


Hi, market trend analysis fans. My pc is still not repaired, so my post will again be short today, with no charts attached. I hope that I will come back to normal posting in the middle of this week. 

Today I wanted to pay your attention to eur/usd pair. You saw that it stopped falling last week and was mildly rising throughout all of the week. However, if you carefully look at the pattern in which it was rising you see that it might reverse and start falling again this week. 1.3750 level is support now, but when broken we will definitely see the most recent bottom of 1.3500 and nobody knows whether the pair will stop there.

It seems to me that the security will visit 1.3000 level somewhere this year. In my opinion eur/usd will continue going down in a downward channel creating shorting opportunities in counter trend moves (rallies). Wait for reversal patterns there. 

It is important what happens during European session on Monday. If support breaks, I believe we are going to see much lower prices in eur/usd sooner rather than later. Let us wait for the morning. Do careful analysis, before you make any serious trading decisions.
See you tomorrow.
Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Trend for 16th of September 2011


Hi guys. It is the third day I am sitting with an old pc of mine, which does not work very properly, therefore I can simply remind you a few things till my computer will be fixed. Today I wanted to stress the importance of looking at the big picture. How can we do it? By looking at long term charts. That’s how you should start your market trend analysis. 

You should always remind yourself whether the market you are studying is in a big move, range or is going sideways. Daily charts, with the help of 4 hour charts can help you to do it. When you see that you are in a move, wait for counter trend moves and when they are over jump back to continue going in the direction of a trend.

If the market is ranging, wait for it to reach important resistance or support levels and reverse there (after forming a reversal pattern). And if the market is going sideways, I would simply stay out of it and wait for better opportunities. 

Hope that helped. See you tomorrow.

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Trend for 15th of September 2011


Hi everyone who enjoys my market trend analysis. I am not sure if you can enjoy it much these few days, because my computer is being repaired now and I have to work with the old horse I am working with now. So, my posts will be extremely short for about five or six days. At least I hope so!

Today I just wanted to remind you about the fact that in trading a range you have to look at support and resistance levels. Markets are now in awful ranges and the best way to trade them is to simply wait for a security to go to a resistance (or support) level form some reversal pattern (123 or head and shoulders) and reverse. If you learn to do that you will become a professional range trader. 

See you tomorrow!

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Trend for 14th of September 2011


Hi, market trend followers. Unfortunately, my computer crashed and it will be problematic for me to do serious analysis for about a week. I guess the problem will be solved sooner and I will continue with my market updates regularly. Computer that I am using at the moment is good for almost nothing. An old horse and that’s it. 

Anyway, in the meantime, don’t forget to always trade in the direction of the move and never in the opposite direction. Do not be attracted by those who enjoy trading counter trend moves for it is a much more difficult strategy that simply trading a direction.

And also, do not forget that when securities start moving, they usually do it all at once. Your task is to select the leader and put your biggest positions on that one. That’s how most money is made in financial markets.
So much for today. Hope to write more informative posts soon.

Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Trend for 12th of September 2011


Hello those who enjoy reading my daily trend analysis. Let me today come back to my prediction regarding aud/jpy pair. If you remember I said that I expected it to rise as it had reached some support level and bounced of it. Unfortunately it did not happen. Now, what do you do if the move does not continue and you are not able to follow the price in the direction you expected it to go? Well, you just go the other direction. How? By trading a reversal and a breakout of support or resistance (in this case support). 

So, if you look at the chart I gave yesterday and compare it with today’s you see what I mean. Our prediction can never be one hundred percent right. We should always have plan B, C and maybe even D and E. If you see a pair bouncing from support it does not mean that it can do it for a long time. A breakout downwards can be very soon. That’s what happened today. The pair just plunged through support and that’s it. 

So, one could simply place a short order below the support level that is indicated in the chart and go together with the market if the breakout is not false (and it was not). The pair is at intermediary support now, but will probably go lower to another support level, which is at 77.00. I really expect the security to find its’ bottom there, reverse and go up again. Why? Because I expect commodities to go up and this means that Australian, Canadian and maybe New Zealand dollar pairs will continue going up against other currencies. Hope I am right.

See you tomorrow.

See also:




Disclaimer
Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.