Trend for 31st of March 2011

If you remember I wrote about an uptrend that I expected to develop in gbp/usd. It did happen today and you could have made some nice profit on the move up in the pair. It has already made some pretty fast reversal and I am out of my trade that I entered yesterday when the pair broke out. Today I am more looking at gbp/jpy pair and I see some possible down trend in the process of developing.

I see two points of support at 132.90 level and the pair failing to continue its’ ascend. So, 132.90 level can be broken pretty soon. At the time of writing it is under assault. I am not entering yet, but waiting for some retracement from the level. If the pair fails to go beyond resistance again, then I will short the pair when it passes below the support. So much for today. Look at the chart to better understand what I mean. See you tomorrow. 

Read my previous posts:

Gbp/usd breakout and uptrend

Gbp/jpy news trade

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 30th of March 2011

Yesterday I talked about gbp/jpy breakout trade upwards which was triggered by fundamental news from Great Britain. Today saw the same thing happening with gbp/usd. Although there was no significant news from the region, gbp/usd broke upwards from its’ most recent channel and it stayed above it most of the time today. It did not go up, but looking at the pattern you can see some bullish momentum present. 

Firstly, they are double bottom that was formed through 28^th and 29^th of March, then higher highs which you can clearly see on 15 minute charts. And of course, a breakout about the most recent resistance level that the pair could not go above in a few days’ period. One thing that can signal a possibility of a false breakout is that a pair did not go up much and still fluctuates quite close to a breakout level. In that case, if you have an order open you need to move your stop closer to the price in order to limit your loss. However, the pair can continue going up tomorrow. So, the best thing to do is to wait for tomorrow and see what happens then. The first resistance is at 1.6100 level (quite close). 

Read my previous posts:

Gbp/jpy upward breakout

Aud/jpy and gbp/jpy predictions

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 29th of March 2011

The news from Great Britain failed to take pound down and start a trend down (gbp/jpy pair), but as the news was more in line with the expectations it actually forced pound to go up against the pair and you could have used this to your advantage by placing a buy stop order above the channel that gbp/jpy has been in for a few days. The pair was in a range between 131.00 and 130.00 levels. It is a rather small range for the pair and the breakout had to come. However, it did not come where I expected.

Anyway, when any important news is released you can trade it in a very simple way. You just place a buy stop order above the most recent high point (in this case 131.02) and a sell stop order below the most recent low point (in this case 130.11). When one order is opened (in this case long), you simply remove the other order and go with the one that is open, wherever the market takes you. You would then move your stop (in this case placing it below the most recent lows of 5 minute charts). No more ideas for possible trends today. See you tomorrow. 

Read my previous posts:

Possible gbp/jpy breakout

Aud/jpy 123 pattern

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 28th of March 2011

I do not have anything interesting to say today. I still hold to my position that gbp/jpy as well as aud/jpy will go down. I cannot say when it is going to happen, but I think it is going to be sooner rather than later. Aud/jpy is forming a 123 pattern at the level that it is now and the breakout of the pattern will give a sell signal for me. I am waiting for tomorrow as there is going to be a lot of important news from Europe, Britain and USA. As I am expecting a trend down from pound I will be closely watching data from Great Britain. 

130.11 level is a sell point for gbp/jpy. Another interesting thing is about eur/usd. It now sits on the uptrend trend line and this could mean that either the pair will jump off it and continue its’ uptrend, or it will break the trend line and go down. Anyway, I am more concentrating on pound, but if I have time tomorrow (data from Euro zone comes first) I will trade eur/usd as well. So, my focus is on gbp/jpy and aud/jpy (gbp/jpy being number 1). 

Read my previous posts: 

Aud/jpy potential downtrend

Gbp/jpy short term trend

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.

Trend for 27th of March 2011

Today I just wanted to write a few thoughts of mine regarding aud/jpy pair trend. From its’ most recent low which was established at 74.40 level on the 16^th of March, the pair rose more than 900 pips with minor retracements. When the pair runs up such a distance in a very short period of time you expect it to run out of steam sooner rather than later. When you look at the charts you become even more convinced about a reversal of a trend in the pair. 

You have to be very cautious when a pair approaches towards some resistance and support as there are much bigger chances that the pair will reverse there and not continue its trend. As far as I see, the pair is at important resistance now and I am in a selling mood about the pair. 83.70 level was touched quite a few times in the past and the pair reversed from there. A chance for a reversal is much bigger due to the fact that aud/jpy has been climbing to the present height without stopping and the bulls should be pretty tired now. 

I do not mean to say that the trend will completely change now, but I do believe there is going to be a correction and the pair will fall to 81.00 level. Of course, this is only my prediction, but as I am following tendencies I state what I state, because there are more chances for the pair to reverse now, rather than continue its’ upward trend. 

Read my previous posts:

Gbp/jpy short term trend

Continuation of gbp/usd trend

Disclaimer

Trading financial markets carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. All information on the blog is of educational nature and cannot be considered as advice, recommendation or signals to trade in any financial markets.